SEATTLE, Oct. 27, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Record diesel prices, rising inflation, and tariff whiplash are pushing shippers to rethink where they hold inventory and how long they commit to space. Flexe’s Q3 State of Spot Warehousing report identifies three trends shaping those decisions: vacancy rose without bringing costs down, tariff-driven demand concentrated at the U.S.-Canada border, and port markets loosened while inland hubs tightened.
At a Glance
Flexe—the largest marketplace of flexible, on-demand warehousing in North America—collected and analyzed the following trends with the Flexe Spot Warehousing Index, a first-of-its-kind database of transactional warehouse pricing.
Key takeaways for shippers include:
- Slow rent growth hasn’t made storage cheaper in traditionally leased buildings or on-demand solutions. Asking rents of traditional leases grew just 1.3% year over year, according to CoStar, well below September’s 3.7% CPI, but operating, inventory, and transportation costs kept climbing. With the Fed’s next rate decision on Oct. 28, Flexe expects spot and lease rates to rise in Q4.
- Shippers should build agility directly into their supply chains to handle fluctuations caused by tariffs. Exposure is highest in categories like aluminum, where Canada can supply roughly three-quarters of U.S. imports under a 50% tariff. Three of the four markets where spot pricing rose in Q3 were in the Northeast and Midwest: Lehigh Valley, Newark, and Chicago.
- Reshoring and more imports moving directly inland by rail are shifting warehouse pressure to inland hubs, where shippers should line up space first. Demand intensity fell in five of six gateway markets from July to September, led by Seattle, Coastal LA, and Savannah. Coastal LA and the Inland Empire held Buyer’s Market ratings all quarter, and Houston spot pricing landed nearly $3 below the national pallet rate in September.
Vacancy Rose, but Costs Didn’t Fall
Q3 opened with signs of relief. National vacancy continued to climb, while asking rent growth slowed to a crawl. Annual asking rent growth slowed to 1.3% in Q3, according to CoStar, down from nearly 10% at the end of 2022.
Warehouse operators kept raising prices anyway. According to the Logistics Managers’ Index (LMI), readings above 50 signal rising costs, and higher means faster growth. The LMI warehousing price reading hit 75.5 in July, its fastest expansion since February 2025, as inventory pulled forward ahead of tariffs settled into storage. By August, new warehouse space kept vacancy climbing yet LMI inventory costs rose for a third straight month. Transportation costs read at 90 or higher for four of the past five months.
In September, vacancy kept climbing which in part contributed to aggressive 3PL bids for flexible, on-demand projects, pulling the Flexe Spot Warehousing Index down $0.02. National demand intensity, Flexe’s measure of how tight the market is, rose to 38 from 30 in July but stayed in Buyer’s Market territory. Transportation costs kept climbing: diesel hit $6.53 per gallon the week of Sept. 21, the highest in 32 years of EIA tracking, and the LMI transportation prices reading reached 92.7.
National Flexe Spot Warehousing Index, July to September 2026
The takeaway: Slow rent growth in traditional leases hasn’t made storage cheaper. Asking rents grew just 1.3% year over year, according to CoStar, well below September’s 3.7% CPI, but operating, inventory, and transportation costs kept climbing. With the Fed’s next rate decision on Oct. 28, Flexe expects spot and lease rates to rise in Q4.
Tariff Demand Cools, but Vancouver Stays Tight
Demand for bonded and Foreign Trade Zone (FTZ) warehouse space persisted in Q3 due to the U.S.-Canada tariff war. North of the border, Vancouver BC remains among the tightest markets in North America, with demand intensity of 95 against 38 nationally. Toronto held the second-lowest vacancy in Flexe’s tracked markets, though its rating cooled from Seller’s to Neutral as operators discounted bids. After the U.S. added 50% tariffs and Canada reciprocated, shippers on cross-border lanes paid spot premiums rather than commit to long-term agreements.
When the Liberation Day tariffs were announced in April 2025, Flexe data showed a sharp spike in demand for bonded and FTZ space as shippers rushed to defer duties. A year and a half later, that rush has largely subsided, with demand 24% below its post-Liberation Day peak.
The spring tariff pull-forward has run its course. July’s LMI inventory levels reading fell 5.5 points to 55 as the early-season inventory settled into storage. August was the busiest import month of 2026 to date, and NRF raised its September and October forecasts to roughly 8% above last year. After repeated cycles of tariff threats, pauses, and reversals, shippers are still bringing goods in but holding off on long-term commitments.
The takeaway: Shippers should build agility directly into their supply chains to handle fluctuations caused by tariffs. Exposure is highest in categories like aluminum, where Canada can supply roughly three-quarters of U.S. imports under a 50% tariff. Three of the four markets where spot pricing rose in Q3 were in the Northeast and Midwest: Lehigh Valley, Newark, and Chicago.
Ports Are Loosening; Inland Markets Are Not
Q3 showed a clear split between import gateways and inland manufacturing hubs.
Flexe demand intensity by market, July to September 2026. Higher readings indicate tighter markets
Demand intensity fell in five of six gateway markets from July to September, led by Seattle (34 to 24), Coastal LA (29 to 20), and Savannah (48 to 38). Coastal LA and the Inland Empire held Buyer’s Market ratings all quarter, and Houston spot pricing landed nearly $3 below the national pallet rate in September. Additionally, the Port of Long Beach hit a record high of import volume in September, though Flexe’s Spot Warehousing Index didn’t see an increase in either price or demand intensity. This is likely due in part to a high rate of port bypass as more freight moved inland.
Inland markets tightened. Demand intensity rose in four of five inland hubs from July to September, and Memphis and Denver moved into Seller’s Markets. Indianapolis held a Seller’s rating with demand intensity of 90 as available buildings above 500,000 SF fell from 25 in early 2025 to 10, according to Colliers. Chicago spot rose about 5% in September to roughly $11.50 per pallet as freight moved to rail.
Pockets of scarcity remain on the East Coast. Boston posted a demand intensity of 86 against 38 nationally, and Newark spot pricing rose 5.7% from July to September, among the strongest gains in the Index as demand intensity climbed from 27 to 46.
The takeaway: Reshoring and more imports moving directly inland by rail are shifting warehouse pressure to inland hubs, where shippers should line up space first.
What Shippers Should Keep in Mind for Q4
Flexe expects spot warehousing rates and traditional industrial lease rates to rise in Q4, leaving many buyers choosing between two higher-priced options. Flexible space offers a third path. Here’s what shippers should do now:
- Defer new long-term traditional lease commitments where spot rates are cheaper. In 17 of 21 tracked markets, September spot pricing sat below local asking rents. On-demand space can cover near-term needs while the rate outlook settles.
- Replace discounted sublease space before peak. Sublease availability fell by more than 13M SF in Q3. Line up on-demand capacity now in buyer-favored markets before peak pricing sets in.
- Keep new leases flexible. Q3 construction starts reached 88M SF, the most since Q2 2023, though not all of it will be warehouse space. Pair shorter commitments with spot capacity so you can move when new supply delivers.
- Negotiate expiring traditional leases now. CoStar expects vacancy to peak in early 2027, which means tenant leverage may not last. Leverage is strongest in Flexe-rated Buyer’s Markets, including Phoenix, Reno, Savannah, Houston, and Dallas.
For more on Flexe’s market insights, visit: https://flexe.com/articles/q3-2026-state-of-spot-warehousing/
About Flexe
Flexe is the largest marketplace of flexible, on-demand warehousing in North America. Founded in 2013 and fueled by its proprietary tech stack, expert operations support, and industry-first pricing and availability benchmark data, Flexe connects enterprises and warehouse operators to bring agility to warehousing, the part of the supply chain still locked into long-term leases.
Flexe is headquartered in Seattle. Its network spans 800+ warehouse operators and 3,000+ locations across the U.S. and Canada. The Flexe Spot Warehousing Index benchmarks spot warehousing pricing monthly, nationally and across 21 regional markets. Learn more at www.flexe.com.
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